Assessing The Geopolitical Impact of The Gaza Conflict Through The Valuation of Oil and Gas Sector Stocks in The Gulf Region

This study analyzes the valuation of oil stocks on Arab stock exchanges in the Gulf region during the October 2023 conflict between Hamas and Israel. The results indicate that stock prices fluctuated in line with developments on Gaza Street, starting from October 7, 2023, contributing to the decline in the stock prices of the three companies studied. The sudden attack by Hamas on Israel triggered instability in the Middle Eastern stock markets, as reported by various media outlets. Before the conflict, the decline in stock prices offered investors an opportunity to purchase ARAMCO shares; however, during the conflict, QGTS shares experienced a sharp correction, while ADNOC shares showed relative resilience. Estimates of investor returns indicate that the DDM model predicts an increase in the company's intrinsic value, while the price growth model reveals volatility. The ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) method was also employed to predict stock prices, with results indicating potential positive trends. Accuracy testing indicates that the P/E Ratio model has the lowest error rate, suggesting that investors should hold ARAMCO shares and consider buying ADNOC and QGTS shares, which are predicted to trend upward.